Are the Leafs Good Again?

So yesterday was Free Agent day in the NHL and honestly it was a pretty weak one. Leafs fans went into the day hyped and talking about Zach Werenski. Now Werenski is not a free agent, but much has been said and written about his desire to leave Columbus, and reports are that the Leafs are in the mix. That one acquisition would answer the title question, and that answer would be yes. But sadly there was nothing happening on that front, so let's dig into what the Leafs did do, and have done recently.

The answer as it stands for now is... probably with an asterisk. They made what you could say were some interesting moves, that could be good, and could be disastrous. It is, if nothing else, a bold strategy. So let's look at the bigger moves and how they could work out.

The Newcomers

Darren Raddysh - Raddysh would have been yesterday's gem had John Chayka not worked out a sign and trade deal with Tampa Bay, sending a 5th rounder to Tampa in exchange for Raddysh on a new 8 year deal at an $8.5m AAV.

Upside: Raddysh is a solid defender, with a booming point shot, that instantly makes the Leafs D core better. He is coming off a crazy 22 goal 70 point season. A nearly point per game (0.96) defenseman is a huge get.

Downside: His previous best season was 6 goals and 37 points. So which player is he really?

Sergei Bobrovsky - This one has been up for much debate, with Bobrovsky turning 38 before the season starts, 3 years x $7m AAV is a big risk, but with possible big rewards. The Leafs up and coming goaltender, and recent Calder Cup winner, Artur Akhtyamov is a big fan, so there is the mentor role too.

Upside: It's Sergei Bobrovsky. In the last 4 years he has 3 Stanley Cup final appearances and 2 wins. And many would argue he was the primary reason for all of that. He's a workhorse, with 11 fifty+ game seasons, including the last 5 seasons, he is a true starting goaltender (or was).

Downside: He's 38. He's coming off his worst NHL season in his career. Is he done? This isn't the first time he has been incorrectly written off so who knows?

Nick Paul - Paul is a big, bruising, fast skating juggernaut when at the top of his game. Leafs fans are all too familiar with how dangerous of a middle six player this guy is. He seemed to score big goals at just the right time against the Buds in the playoffs.

Upside: Gives them a legitimate 3C and can play wing if necessary. A big body that can skate and actually likes to hit. Two 20 goal seasons in the last three.

Downside: Two serious injuries last year led to 7 goals and 15 points, and 0 points in 6 playoff games.

Gavin McKenna - The Leafs winning the draft lottery changed a lot of people's outlook for the team. Many, most even, felt the window was closed and they should burn it down and start over. Until that number 12 came out of the lottery machine.

Upside: Exhilarating player with unreal hockey IQ and creativity. Seems to be Marner but not mentally fragile (remains to be seen).

Downside: He's a rookie, if we get 50 points out of him that will be massive. He has been touted as not terribly strong, or interested, defensively. So maybe a bit of Willy in the mix?

Jack Roslovic - Twenty goals in the last 2 seasons. He has playing experience with Matthews, and apparently they're friends. Making AM happy is good.

Upside: Can score, and can play centre.

Downside: Not that strong defensively, not much else to say here.

The Old Guard

Nothing real is going to happen without Auston Matthews returning to form. They might make the playoffs, but they won't make any noise unless Matthews of old returns. Getting rid of Berube should be a big factor here, and hopefully he is finally actually healthy.

Willy needs to continue chugging along at the pace he has been setting, but it is Willy, there is no reason to believe he won't.

Every year we hear how Tavares needs to be a winger now. Every year he proves that wrong. Let's hope he quiets the naysayers again, I say he does it.

Mo has been rough. I hate saying this because I love Mo, and I still want him to retire a Leaf (preferably with a cup). But he does need to pick it up. Raddysh should allow the Leafs to use Mo further down the lineup so fingers crossed.

Cowan and Knies need to keep doing what they were doing, no real notes here, just get better progressively.

The Vision

So the vision I see is a more talented, and harder to play against lineup, and if all goes to plan they are absolutely that. They have a proven starting goalie that is not made of glass and can eat minutes. Nick Paul gives them the first real 3C they have had since the one year Kadri and Tavares were on the team at the same time. Raddysh gives them a real power play quarterback that scores like a winger, but can still defend.

The vision is solid, but precarious. If Bobrovsky really did turn into a pumpkin, the Leafs moved on from a very solid Hildeby so this all hinges on either Bob recovering, or Stolarz magically not being made of glass. If Raddysh is even a 50 point defenseman that is a win, if he returns to a ~35 point defenseman not so much. If Paul returns to form his $3.15m salary is a homerun, if his physical play style has caught up to him, and he becomes an injury issue it is a boat anchor, a small one in todays cap climate, but one none-the-less.

Wrap up

This could be the best Leafs team we have seen in this era, or it could be a complete disaster. Yeah, yeah, I get it that isn't an actual answer, and it is waffling. But the fact is Chayka seems to have a vision for what this team can be, and I like that vision a lot. But the way of getting there is taking some pretty serious gambles. If all 3 of Raddysh, Bobrovsky, and Paul hit. It is going to be a very good year to be a Leafs fan.